Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
